The past two seasons have been pretty much the same for these Marlins. 83 wins and around -16 units in both seasons.
The Marlins have shown some success against left-handed pitching compared to right-handed pitching. Vegas is correctly calling the Marlins’ odds against left-handed shooters, but he’s overestimating them by an average of 14 points against right-handed shooters. When he looks to bet on these Marlins, he wants them against lefties.
As a road favorite against left-handed pitching, these Marlins have gone 22-10 +9 units over the past 3 seasons. This isn’t a guarantee that the Marlins will have similar success in the 2006 season, but it’s definitely a trend we’ll be monitoring.
We put a lot of emphasis when we bet on baseball to bet on teams that are gaining momentum. The Marlins have been an exception the past two seasons. If you lose, it’s -11 units, while if you win, it’s -24 units in roughly the same number of games.
In the 2006 season, we’ll look to get the Marlins in good spots against left-handed pitching. Also if we find them motivated by a loss. For example, the Marlins are 22-12 +10 points from a loss in which they allowed double-digit runs.